Published Every MondaySince 2007| Volume 737| January 11, 2021
So far YTD these many weeks were up (Bull), down (Bear), or draw (Bull/Bear) … Bulls (Markets UP) = 01… Bears (DOWN) = 0… and Draw = 0
2021 starts on a high note – Markets at record highs!
The DOW was up +471 points or +1.5%, S&P500 +60 points or +1.6%, and the NASDAQ +243 points or +1.9% for the first week of 2021. Oil was up +$4.3 or +8.9% to $52.73 per barrel.
For the first time the NASDAQ closed above 13K, a record, while the DOW and S&P500 stayed in their record territory of 31K and 3.8K respectively.
140K Jobs lost in December – reversing the job recovery
The U.S. Labor Department reported that in December 140K jobs were LOST. The unemployment rate stayed at 6.7%. So far for year 2020 we are in job deficit and since February -9.8 million jobs lost! In comparison in 2019 US added 2.1 million, 2018 added 2.7 million, and 2017 added 2.06 million jobs. Since 2009 and financial crisis close to 22 million jobs were created.
See the charts from New York Times which shows a net deficit of 9.8 million jobs as of November to pre Covid-19 employment of 152 million in February, 2020.
The massive job losses occurred in the Leisure and Hospitality industry which employs the most and impacts restaurants, hotels, bars, travel, and related services. See the chart from NY Times which shows precovid there were 17 million people working in this industry and now 3.9 million are without jobs.
The labor participation rate has also fallen from ~63% pre-Covid to ~61%. The participation is a percentage 16-64 years olds that are working or seeking employment. Non-working Americans include the retired, stay home with kids, disabled, Seniors, College students AND those trying to find a job but have given up.
Typically 300,000 new jobs a month are needed to drop the unemployment rate, and 150,000 jobs to just keep up with the population growth.
During the last recession, due to a bad banking loan crisis, close to 8.7 million jobs were lost which were recovered but now with Covid-19 more jobs have been lost!
Sources: Multiple, CNN, Yahoo, Google, NY Times, BLS, US Government, CIA handbook,…Select other sources
US Covid-19 deaths have crossed unfortunate mark of 382K (+26K from last week) and expected to rise due to holidays season and continued disregard to CDC guidance! Now US Covid deaths > than US lives lost in ALL WARS combined except WWII!!
Global Covid cases ~90 million (+6 M); Global deaths > 1.9 million;
US Covid cases = ~23 million (+>3m and ~25% of world); US deaths ~ 382K (or ~20% of the world)
The richest nation on earth US has about 4.3% of the world population but it has lost 20% of the lives lost worldwide! Source: www.worldometers.info
In YTD 2020 Dow is up +1.6%, S&P500 is UP+1.8% and the NASDAQ is UP +2.4%
In YTD 2020 Dow was up +7.2%, S&P500 is UP+16.3% and the NASDAQ is UP +43.6%
In 2019 DOW was up +22.3%, S&P500 up +28.9% and NASDAQ up +35.2%
In 2018 the DOW was down -6.7%, S&P500 down -7.0% and NASDAQ down -4.6%.
In 2017 the DOW was up 25.1%, S&P500 up 19.4% and NASDAQ up 28.2%