Published Every MondaySince 2007| Volume 836 | December 5, 2022
So far YTD these many weeks were markets were up (Bull picture shown), down (Bear picture), or draw (Bull/Bear picture) … Bulls (Markets UP) = 22… Bears (DOWN) = 25… and Draw = 0
Markets move up for the week
The DOW was up +154 or +0.4%, S&P500 was up +66 points or +1.7% and the Nasdaq was up +314 points or +2.8%. Oil rose by +$4.1 or +5.3% to $80.34 per barrel. Oil is now closer to the same price as it was at the beginning of this year. Oil is expected to go down for now due to supply-demand imbalance, however, upcoming OPEC+ meeting and the associated politics may change the oil price.
In the beginning of the week investors were encouraged by the Fed Chair, Mr. Powell's comment that the Federal Reserve does not see the need to remain aggressive on increasing the interest rates considering inflation, though still high, is seeing a decline. However, on Friday it all changed as the November Job report (details below) turned up strong leading experts to believe that the Fed may have to keep the interest rates high to see the job market to soften to help reduce the inflation.
The U.S. adds +263K jobs in November
The U.S. Labor Department reported that in November +263,000 jobs were added. This was the 23rd straight monthly gain! Unemployment rate in November remained flat at 3.7% (was 3.7% in Oct), the lowest since the pandemic started in 2019. Hourly wages rose +5.1% (was +4.7% in Oct) from a year ago. The labor participation rate declined to 62.1% (was 62.2% in Oct) in November, which is still below the pandemic level of 63.4%. The U.S. has now recovered more than 22 million jobs lost due to Covid pandemic.
Source – NY Times
Pandemic related job loss was 22 million. In 2021 the U.S. economy added 6.4 million jobs. 2020 was a massive job loss year. See above. In comparison to 2019 where the US added +2.1 million, 2018 added +2.7 million, and 2017 added +2.06 million jobs.
The labor participation rate is now 62.1%. Pre-covid this number was 63.4%. Labor participation rate for women was reported at 76.3% (was 76.5 in Oct). The participation is a percentage of 16-64 years olds that are working or seeking employment. Non-working Americans include the retired, stay home with kids, disabled, Seniors, College students AND those trying to find a job but have given up.
Typically 300,000 new jobs a month are needed to drop the unemployment rate, and 150,000 jobs to just keep up with the population growth.
Sources: Multiple, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, Yahoo, Google, NY Times, BLS, US Government, CIA handbook,…Select other sources
2022 the DOW is -5.3%, S&P500 is -14.6% and the NASDAQ is -26.7%
2021 the DOW was up +18.7%, S&P500 +26.9% and the NASDAQ +21.4%
In 2020 the DOW was up +7.2%, S&P500 UP+16.3% and the NASDAQ UP +43.6%
In 2019 the DOW was up +22.3%, S&P500 up +28.9% and the NASDAQ up +35.2%
In 2018 the DOW was down -6.7%, S&P500 down -7.0% and NASDAQ down -4.6%.
In 2017 the DOW was up 25.1%, S&P500 up 19.4% and the NASDAQ up 28.2%